27 June, 2013
The Eurasian Union orchestrated lately by Russian politicians and its media as a sole remedy for the solution of Georgia’s territorial conflicts is a trap for Georgia to divert it from the right track, directed to the west.
Russian political analyst, Professor Alexandr Dugin, largely advocating the Eurasian Union idea, a brainchild of Russian president Vladimir Putin, envisaging political and economic integration of former Soviet republics under one umbrella similar to the EU model, claimed recently that Georgia has no
chance of getting its breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia back, unless it joins the Eurasian Union where there would be “no borders” between Georgia, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Russia the same way as there are “no borders” between the EU member states. Later, on June 13, 2013, Russian web-portal informed its readers, based on its incognito source in the Georgian government that Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili supports the idea and behind-the-scenes negotiations between Tbilisi-Sukhumi-Tskhinvali-Moscow are going on; the fact is expected to be trumpeted after Georgian presidential elections this October. The same solution is conjectured regarding Azeri-Armenian conflict over the Nagorny Karabakh territorry. Although the idea looks utopian at the moment, initially the EU was deemed utopian too, the portal reminds its customers.
The Eurasian Union is a trap to lure Georgia into the Eurasian Union, which actually means restoration of Soviet empire and ruining Georgia’s independence, Georgian analysts believe. Politically Georgia’s inclusion within the Eurasian Union is impossible unless it acknowledges independence of its breakaway republics, thus saying no to its territorial integrity, or unless Russia acknowledges Georgian territorial integrity and cancels the recognition of sovereignty, which was granted by the Kremlin to Georgian conflicting regions in 2008. Without defining the political borders, no amalgamation of countries is possible. Even within the Soviet Union member states had borders. But Russia will never withdraw its recognition, President Putin reiterated, for several times lately. By hints on Georgia’s enrollment within the Eurasian Union Russia very likely expects Georgia to secede.
“If Georgian government accepts this offer I would say it is made of Russian spies,” Ditrikh Muller, co-founder of Georgian Investment Group, told Georgian Journal. “This will be an apparent political failure that can bring no economic benefits for situation is radically changed after Russia joined World Trade Organization (WTO).” According to him, after both Russia and Georgia are the WTO members and all trade barriers are removed between the countries [in pursuance with the WTO regulations] Russia cannot offer any trade preferences to Georgia that deprives the Eurasian Union amalgamation off all senses to Georgia. Besides, Georgian foreign trade balance changed in favor to the west, Soso Archvadze, an economic analyst explains, and joining the Eurasian union would be a confrontation to the west. Post-soviet space takes just around one-third in Georgian foreign trade while the two-third comes with other countries. There was a time when Russia made 60% of Georgian trade but today its share is insignificant. After trade embargo Russia imposed on Georgia in 2006 Georgian companies treat Russia as a risky market and try to depend on it by less than 25%.
“So vectors are changed radically, Georgia made a breakthrough and diversified its trade, it enhanced relationships with the West and entrance in the Eurasian Union will be confrontation with the west, so economic benefits of this Union is zero,” Archvadze elaborated. He finds irrelevant comparison of the Eurasian Union with the EU for economic necessity laid ground to political amalgamation of Europe while the Eurasian Union is an artificial union forced by political rather economic factors that makes it less viable. He believes Georgia will not enter the questioned union voluntarily and if Russia extends force over Georgia as it used in the past century that will be assessed as a political factor and the world will not allow forceful actions this time.
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