Soviet Pattern Recurrence
27 February, 2014
Soviet Pattern Recurrence

When Putin said that the collapse of the USSR was the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century, he had probably wished to let the world know that he was regretful about the inevitable soviet calamity that had come about so instantaneously. Who knows, the tsar in democratic clothing could have been right. Looking back into the last twenty-five years of history, the momentous change in the life of the populous human conglomerate, called the Soviet People was indeed a

disaster, which swept away the halcyon years of peaceful existence for otherwise demoralized and despondent experimental nation.


The unheard-of sizes of mass departures, the induced hasty migration of populace, immense alterations in the way of life, unending ethnic conflicts, desperately instigated by the remnants of the faltering but still breathing communist rule, iniquitous distribution and squandering of state property, blood, tears, unemployment, hunger, anger, misery and devastation – this was all the unfortunate consequence of the fall of the evil empire, once described with such a sharp accuracy by the 40th American President – the celebrated grave digger of communism. Whether we want to believe or not, the monster’s tail is still alive and wagging, and every swing of that dying but still powerful tail keeps now and then triggering a new mishap here and there on the territory of the former Soviet Union. Take for instance the Ukraine’s dependence on the Russian economy and its spiritual attachment to the legal successor of the soviet country and the heir to its political culture. Any independently made decision of the Ukrainian people and its government about the future development of the country will be censored by the Russian government, controlled by the Russian money and changed forthwith if the decision is not to the liking of the big brother. Look at Georgia! Georgia had started the earsplitting anti-Russian political slogans long before the twilight of the soviet regime, having assumed the role of a pioneer in the works for the demise of the USSR. And we all know the result – lost territories, long-term doubtful fight for the country’s integrity, political dead-end with Russia, unfulfilled dreams of independent military and political choices, lost chances for vigorous economic advance and the uncomfortable, stinging sense of animosity between the Georgian and the Russian peoples. Ukraine is in trouble because it wants to be Russia’s naughty baby brother. The mess in Ukraine has occurred because Ukraine dares to think that it belongs more in the Western ideology and economy than anywhere else. This is certainly not happening without the West’s delicately manifested desire to teach the stubbornly Russian Russia a few practical western lessons, but at the end of the day it is the Ukrainian people who have its hundred dead and thousand injured sons and daughters who thought their lives, if sacrificed, would change life in Ukraine to the benefit of the entire Ukrainian people who, it is said, are split on the concept of their future. The conflict in Ukraine has nothing to do with parochialism and ethnicity as the Georgian conflict paradigms are interpreted and presented – no conflicts would have taken place here without Russia’s imperial convictions of its territorial vulnerability and incongruous sense of state security. The current hot variance in Ukraine is purely political and economic – it is simply believed that the Western model of development is more pragmatic and practicable that the Russian vector. Well, I cannot be sure about the results of a hypothetic plebiscite in Ukraine. I have no idea how the Ukrainian people would vote – for the West or for Russia – but it is absolutely certain that a solid change in the country is mature and predictable, and the world should take the Ukrainian upheaval very seriously. The gist of the matter is that if the clash between the Western and the Russian interests in Ukraine brings about deaths and injury, then the Western-Russian contradiction needs to be desisted and repaired immediately, and they both should take care of this badly lacerated beautiful nation. Is this in the way of idealistic and dreamful resolutions of the Ukrainian conflict? It sure is, but it sounds so good! If Russia is losing Ukraine as its partner, relative and friend, and a sphere of influence into the bargain, she will probably make a quick use of a couple of feints that are permanently hidden up her long, wide and dark sleeve just in case some of the kid brothers go berserk and need appeasing. Who if not we the Georgians can say that with a bitter sense of national confidence, based on our own erstwhile and current experience. Will Russia let go Ukraine so easily? She might. Or she might have to. Not without certain preconditions though. How about the ever-figuring Russian territorial claims and challenges, and her grand-masterly habitual skill of handling the situations like that? My educated presumption is that in case of confrontation on territorial issues, Russia may lose seriously if encountered once again with the Ukrainian stubbornness and heroic spirit to stand off and endure. Ukraine is a potential strong economic and political player in the world arena if given a real chance of free and independent action, and if Russia is willing to put up with Ukraine’s genuine independence some day. As a matter of fact, confrontation between Russia and Ukraine makes the world a truly dangerous place to live. Conversely, friendship and cooperation will let us all benefit tremendously. So why not to choose the latter version of marriage between them? Maybe they are in need of this lovely piece of advice? They certainly are, but they also need to have an ear to hear that counsel. Meanwhile, the dogs bark, but the caravan goes on. Happy journey into the unknown!

 

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