Most of us would probably agree that looking back is much easier than gazing into the future. Evaluating the past is extremely important but having a more or less unmistakably calculated vision of prospective hazards or opportunities should be even more significant. If on the eve of political upheaval of the beginning of those roaring nineties of the 20th century in the former USSR the Georgian political leadership of that time and the nation’s intellectual elite had had a clearer perspective of those devastating incipient developments, Georgia might have endured the end-of-soviet-era economic social and political “earthquakes” much easier and with minimized pains and losses.
As it is becoming obvious after 25 years of living in endless doubts and prolonged confusions, saying nothing about the tiring interminable strife with Russia and the misery of everyday life, plenty of pitfalls and bungles could have been avoided by the country. Maybe, the time for better thinking is high enough to give additional consideration to our future state of play – both internal and international; maybe, the nation is still at a loss as it has ever been; maybe, the blunders of the past are reemerging once again to get in our way of modern development; maybe the current works of the nation are not healthy enough for making a palpable progress; maybe, the exigency is decidedly prompting us to start listening to the best brains and talents of the nation; maybe, we have to be looking for alternative ways of giving birth to our better future. Maybe! There are so many of those astonishing uncertainties and qualms! So what is in store for Georgia after all? Are we going to survive the cruel tattering of our territories that had happened in the wake of soviet demise, and are still in heartbreaking shreds? Shall we endure the perpetual tiring expectation of becoming an integral part of the European community via joining NATO and the European Union? Can we pull the country through the economic weakness that is giving a very limited chance to those who are ready to work? Are we capable of putting our diplomatic act together so neatly and dexterously that the world starts reckoning with our interests seriously? Well, I hear everywhere and all the time that Georgia is again – as it has always been historically – at crucial geopolitical and ideological crossroads which makes life here strained and annoying because those turning points and defining moments are never ending. On the other hand, the nation is used to this kind of status quo – just hanging in the air, not having a clue which direction to go. Isn’t this awful? After all, we are living in the 21st century when the human experience of making optimal decisions about further existence is optimized to the utmost. Can we make use of that global know-how to the benefit of this nation? We have to make some knowledgeable guesses about our future. We have to know somehow what is in store for Georgia in the nearest future and in the long run too. I have heard from the smartest among our political experts that in case of remarrying Russia we may survive physically, but we will never be well off, dragging our feet along the way of a stagnated or slowly developing economy – that will definitely be a nauseating déjà-vu. The same smart heads persist in their belief that Euro-Atlantic development of the events here might work better economically and could be more fun culturally, but the augmentation of the Russian hostility towards Georgia may very well end up in its invasion and swallow-up by the infuriated bear. To continue with these unsavory suppositions, some snaky tongues are hissing to that further slicing of our beautiful lands is also possible if we don’t behave. Poor old Georgia! How much can it tolerate? And what is in store for it after all? By any educated presumption, do we have any chance at all to continue enjoying our well-deserved and fought-for sovereignty, at least the extant quasi independence? Let us assume for a second that we can. What kind of autonomy and self-rule would that be? There are so many big and small players in the geopolitical game Georgia is involved in that its independence sounds like terribly dependent on countless global political impulses, latent political fluids, variety of covert and overt international dealings, strategic and economic interests of various countries and the geopolitical agenda, pressed by the heavyweights. The only helper in the situation, when nobody knows what actually is in store for Georgia in the next fifty years or so, seems to be a thorough analysis, based on contemporary political science. This could be done via indigenous scientific effort or with the help of invited powers. This country can no longer continue living and working blindfolded as it is now. It should know exactly what it has in store, and accordingly, needs to start building up its future life. The accidental guesswork must end and a strong logic must be brought in as we are speaking about the future of the nation. Otherwise, we may fall apart even more defectively than we are torn apart today. I cannot really say that the world cares too much whether Georgia’s territory is integrated into one historical whole or whether it is disintegrated into several smaller pieces as a result of a brazen invasion by another state. I am not sure if the world will care if the entire Georgian territory is assaulted by another country. I don’t believe that the world will kill itself over saving Georgia from potential geopolitical hardship, which might be in store for this beautiful land. So we have to call in all our national smarts and experience, all our national talent and skills, and all the available international assistance to find out what is in store for us and to define our future. This might be good not only for Georgia but for the rest of the world too.