Turkish-Russian Deadlock
04 December, 2015
Turkish-Russian Deadlock
How Would a Military Confrontation Between Turkey and Russia Affect Georgia’s Security?

There is a theoretical chance of the confrontation in Syria shifting to the Black Sea, especially considering that all the past wars between Russia and Turkey took place in the Black Sea’s waters and on its coastline – namely, the Crimean Peninsula and the South Caucasus. A century ago, during World War I, Russia used the territories of Georgia and Armenia as staging grounds to launch attacks against
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the Ottoman Empire.

Although today’s Georgia is an independent country (fortunately), it cannot control the Tskinvali region and Abkhazia that are occupied by Russia (unfortunately), with the Gali region being an ideal springboard for deployment of Russian theatre-of-war missile systems Iskander and Tochka-U to attack Turkish strategic objects in the northeastern part of the country. We’d like to remind you that during the August War, when Russia was invading Georgia, Turkish authorities weren’t in a hurry to let the American warships pass through the Bosphorus Strait – their eventual appearance at such a crucial moment has given us a lot of political ammunition against Russia.

Until recently, the Turkish fleet was dominant in the Black Sea, but after the occupation of Abkhazia and Crimea, Russian warships and submarines are more than capable of contesting this title.
It is unlikely that the Russian-Turkish confrontation will grow into an all-out war, but it is also obvious that the relations between these two powerful countries have become strained for a long time to come. For this reason, their scuffle may evolve into a secret war between special services on the territory of Georgia.

Turkish Armed Forces


The Turkish Armed Forces consist of land, air and naval forces as well as gendarmerie and the coastguard, considered to be part of both defense and interior ministries. Their total strength comprises approximately 410,000 men.

Among NATO member countries, the Turkish Land Forces are the second largest after the U.S., with 315,000 men. Turkish Ar­med Forces have 30 theatre-of-war mo­bile missile launchers, more than 3,500 tanks, over 5,000 combat armored vehicles, about 6,000 artillery systems of different calibers, 3,800 anti-tank weapons, about 1,400 portable anti-aircraft missile complexes, more than 400 war planes (including 208 destroyers of F-16C/D type that are assembled in Turkey on American license). The Turkish Navy is comprised of 133 vessels, including 19 frigates and seven corvettes, as well as 14 diesel-engine submarines.
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