How will the situation affect Georgia?
20 March, 2014
How will the situation affect Georgia?
Georgian and foreign politicians and analysts agree that the situation in Ukraine is an international issue, which will have a serious repercussion on other countries. How will the situation affect Georgia and what messages does this reality convey in terms of our desirable partners? American Senator John McCain has stated recently that the Georgian and Ukrainian situations are quite similar, and the Russian federation has invaded the territories of both countries. He stressed that the Georgian government was forced to protect its area in 2008 as it has no other outcome especially when the country would have to “wait long” for European support.
The Georgian President, Prime Minister, Foreign Minister and other officials appeal to the international community to timely regulate the situation in Ukraine, as the situation would affect the world and Georgia among it.
An Associate Research Scholar at Columbia University’s Harriman Institute, Lincoln Mitchel, told Georgian Journal that the west’s response to the invasion of Crimea is not sufficient to push Russia out of Ukraine, but given the options at hand, there is not much more that can be done.
“The response is also not yet finished. There are other actions such as greater sanctions, a MAP for Georgia and the like that still can be taken,” the analyst thinks, noting that for Georgia, the Russian invasion in Ukraine largely reiterates things it already knows.
“Most notably is that Russia still does not want countries like Ukraine and Georgia moving towards the west and that the west has a limited ability to stop Russia. This is not good news for Georgia but it reflects the reality. Georgia seems to be doing most of the right things now, sending strong statements condemning the invasion while seeking to accelerate its membership into NATO,” Lincoln stresses.
The analyst emphasizes that Russia has been using aggressive methods against Georgia in recent months by building fences on Georgian territory.
“The EU and the US have not been able to stop this. That is a reminder of the limits of western power. That said, European and the North American governments still value Georgia and want to bring it into NATO and the EU,” Lincoln states.
Journalist and political analyst, Avigdor Eskin, told Georgian Journal that the international community was active in undermining the Yanukovich government. However, the Western support to the anti-Russian forces there will not take the West to a war
with Russia.
“The situation in Crimea is really unique. Nobody will dispute the fact that 90% of its local residents want to be part of Russia. The situation there is unique because of the wide support of Crimean citizens to Russia. Also, there is nothing close in Georgia which can be compared to the Neo-Nazis. Therefore, any future comparison between the Crimean situation and the Georgian plight in Abkhazia will cause damage to Georgia,” Eskin states, stressing that there was a clear Georgian majority in Abkhazia. They were subjected to massive murder and expulsion by the Abkhazians and their allies. “Therefore, there is no place to draw any comparisons. As far as Russian steps against Georgia, there is no any information about such intentions. Georgia faces a much bigger problem today from the Turkish side,” Eskin believes.
Associated Professor Korneli Kakachia told Georgian Journal that there are three possible developments for Georgia based on Ukrainian reality. According to him, in case Ukraine loses Crimea, there might be more chances for Georgia to get MAP. “ The west would need a basement in the region in this case,” Kakachia said.
“In case Ukraine preserves Crimea, Georgia might be in an uncomfortable situation. The agreement between the international community and Russia might take place based on a compromise regarding Georgia’s occupied regions,” the analyst said, noting that there is a third and best outcome as well. “In case Ukraine preserves both: Crimea and aspiration to join the EU, Georgia and Ukraine might be discussed together for EU integration,” Kakachia stated.
He stressed that the international community “is not ready” to carry out military operations against Russia. “The situation revealed that neither Ukraine nor Georgia will induce the West or the US to oppose Russia militarily. However, Georgia should do its best to become an EU member,” Kakachia stated.
Political analyst Vakhtang Dzabiradze is sure that Georgia is directly linked to the Ukrainian developments.
The analyst thinks that Georgia will not be left without attention in any case from Russia.“ Even after the Crimea problem is solved positively for Ukraine and the international community, Russia will try to cause inner confrontation and dissatisfaction among the public towards the Government due to unfulfilled promises. The dissatisfaction would be catalyzed by the forces instructed by Russians,” Dzabiradze states.
Political analyst Tornike Sharashenidze ascertains that little is needed for Russia to dislocate its soldiers on the territory of a sovereign state. “There are people in Georgia who have positive attitudes and support the Federation. Such sentiments have not been gathered yet. If someone works on their mobilization, they might be gathered and used for Russian interests,” Sharashenidze states.

Angela Merkel: Russia will face a diplomatic and economic blow


How will the events unfold in Ukraine? Will the political crisis turn into a full-scale military confrontation and is Russia planning to move to eastern Ukraine after Crimea? These are the questions over which every media publication and analyst is breaking its heads. Here we present the outlines reflecting the position of the military forces of confronted sides in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.
John Kerry, US Secretary of State: “Russia is not yet ready to conquer the whole of Ukraine but the situation may change very quickly and we must be ready for this.”If Russia continues this course it will be a catastrophe not only for Ukraine, but for Russia itself.”Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany: “Russia’s Government should abandon pursuing XIX and XX century policies otherwise they will face diplomatic and economic blows from Europe.This partially confirms the declarations of the Ukrainian authorities that there was mass mobilization of Russian forces at the border. Amateur photos showing strings of the armored personal carriers heading to the village of Lopan near Kharkov were also spread. It is also confirmed that 1500 commandos from the military base near Ivanovo landed at the Rostov military base that isn’t very far from Donetsk and Lugansk.”“It was yesterday when Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia flatly denied the increase of number of military units at the border with Ukraine but today (March 14) the Ministry of Defense publishes an announcement that at the territory adjacent to Ukraine intensive military exercises are on in which participate artillery units, assault helicopters and at least 10000 soldiers.The New York Times: How the Russian Ministry of Defense explains the mass mobilization of Russian armed forces at the border with Ukraine: 


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