Three ways Russia may repeat Ukraine scenario in Georgia
13 November, 2014
Three ways Russia may repeat Ukraine scenario in Georgia
Truso Gorge, Javakheti, Avar-Kakheti road… This is but a short list of territories where already partly occupied Georgia might face additional problems unfolding in accordance with the Ukrainian scenario. What is happening in Ukraine now is merely a repetition of the Russian scenario executed by Kremlin in Abkh
azia and Tskhinvali regions in 1992-1993 and in 2008, respectively.


Today the Kremlin may once again turn towards Georgia and continue the already existing occupation. Finding new sources of tension would hardly be a problem: it might be Truso Gorge and an invasion to “liberate Ossetian lands,” or a road from Dagestan into Kakheti that presents a comfortable vector for an assault, or even Javakheti where a Donbass-like scenario is very easy to replicate.
What is the main motivation between the Kremlin’s dogged attempts to establish a foothold in Georgia, whose government is looking for channels of cooperation with Russia after defeat of Saakashvili’s government? The answer is obvious: Moscow’s main goal is restoration of roads and railways between Russia and Armenia.
Rail is one of the cheapest and most comfortable methods of transportation, and restoring the Sukhumi-Ingiri railway isn’t a technically difficult task. But the main problem for Russia is the policy of both current and previous Georgian governments, according to which functioning of this railway is out of the question until refugees exiled from Abkhazia return to their homes.
Therefore, underhanded political pressure on Tbilisi from the backstage of Moscow’s political scene is expected to grow. Naturally, the Georgian government fiercely denies any possibility of negotiating this topic, but one of Armenian ministers has recently announced that such negotiations have occurred and that soon Armenians will be able to comfortably travel to Russia in trains with luxurious conditions.
As for the Truso Gorge, which is located at the foot of Caucasus Mountains and hosts 25 kilometers of the Tergi River, Ossetian separatists have always been interested in it, and after the 2008 war, Eduard Kokoity begged the Kremlin to invade it and make it part of “South Ossetian Republic.” After several years of silence about the gorge, separatists have reared their heads again, and I don’t think this is a coincidence.
By creation of several hotspots, be they in Truso, Avar-Kakheti road or Javakheti, Russia is repeating the 2008 scenario, when our army had to fight on two fronts and was ultimately defeated.
New developments are very unlikely to occur this winter, since Russia usually starts its military activity in spring and summer, ensuring unimpeded movement of its armored divisions and a clear sky for air force. Therefore, spring and summer of 2015 might become yet another time of turmoil and tension.
In the meantime, Russia has completed renovation of the Roki tunnel to ensure unrestricted access to occupied Tskhinvali in the winter.

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